TGM's two-stage DCF values Maplebear Inc. (CART) between $66.07 and $116.51 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $87.82. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$44.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.1% | $66.07 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.1% | $87.82 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.1% | $116.51 |
Current Price
$44.25
Market-Implied Growth
+0.7%/yr
vs +20.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$66.07 – $116.51
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CART (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $576.5M · 0.24B shares · net cash $637.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$87.82
+98.5% vs $44.25
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $44.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $112 | $123 | $139 | $159 | $186 |
| 7.1% | $90.92 | $98.48 | $108 | $119 | $134 |
| 8.1% | $76.57 | $81.74 | $87.82 | $95.09 | $104 |
| 9.1% | $66.04 | $69.76 | $74.04 | $79.01 | $84.87 |
| 10.1% | $57.99 | $60.78 | $63.92 | $67.50 | $71.63 |
