TGM's two-stage DCF values CarGurus, Inc. (CARG) between $31.82 and $52.30 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $40.31. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$29.35 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.5%/yr | 10.9% | $31.82 |
| Base case | 8.5%/yr | 9.9% | $40.31 |
| Optimistic | 11.5%/yr | 8.9% | $52.30 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $17.05 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$29.35
Market-Implied Growth
+0.2%/yr
vs +9.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$31.82 – $52.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CARG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $209.6M · 0.10B shares · net cash $190.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$40.31
+37.3% vs $29.35
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $29.35; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | $48.04 | $51.25 | $55.05 | $59.63 | $65.23 |
| 8.9% | $41.58 | $43.87 | $46.52 | $49.62 | $53.28 |
| 9.9% | $36.66 | $38.37 | $40.31 | $42.52 | $45.08 |
| 10.9% | $32.80 | $34.11 | $35.58 | $37.23 | $39.09 |
| 11.9% | $29.69 | $30.73 | $31.87 | $33.13 | $34.54 |
