TGM's two-stage DCF values CAE Inc. (CAE) between $4.92 and $11.91 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $7.77. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$23.51 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +31.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.9%/yr | 10.2% | $4.92 |
| Base case | 9.9%/yr | 9.2% | $7.77 |
| Optimistic | 12.9%/yr | 8.2% | $11.91 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $16.06 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$23.51
Market-Implied Growth
+31.2%/yr
vs +9.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$4.92 – $11.91
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CAE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $190.2M · 0.32B shares · net debt $1.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$7.77
-66.9% vs $23.51
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $23.51; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $10.52 | $11.74 | $13.21 | $15.04 | $17.36 |
| 8.2% | $8.19 | $9.03 | $10.01 | $11.19 | $12.61 |
| 9.2% | $6.47 | $7.07 | $7.77 | $8.58 | $9.53 |
| 10.2% | $5.14 | $5.60 | $6.11 | $6.70 | $7.37 |
| 11.2% | $4.09 | $4.45 | $4.84 | $5.28 | $5.78 |
