Why we don't show a single “fair value” for BWMN
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($21.17) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$42.78 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +40.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.2% | $12.14 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.2% | $16.38 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.2% | $21.17 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $42.66 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$42.78
Market-Implied Growth
+40.8%/yr
vs +32.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$16.38
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BWMN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $16.7M · 0.02B shares · net debt $71.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$16.38
-61.7% vs $42.78
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $42.78; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | $20.12 | $21.52 | $23.12 | $24.98 | $27.17 |
| 10.2% | $17.07 | $18.12 | $19.31 | $20.66 | $22.20 |
| 11.2% | $14.67 | $15.48 | $16.38 | $17.40 | $18.54 |
| 12.2% | $12.72 | $13.37 | $14.07 | $14.85 | $15.73 |
| 13.2% | $11.12 | $11.64 | $12.20 | $12.82 | $13.50 |
