TGM's two-stage DCF values Bioventus Inc. (BVS) between $3.86 and $11.03 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $6.62. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$13.26 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +24.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.8%/yr | 8.5% | $3.86 |
| Base case | 11.8%/yr | 7.5% | $6.62 |
| Optimistic | 14.8%/yr | 6.5% | $11.03 |
Current Price
$13.26
Market-Implied Growth
+24.2%/yr
vs +11.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$3.86 – $11.03
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BVS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $22.9M · 0.07B shares · net debt $246.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$6.62
-50.1% vs $13.26
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $13.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $9.77 | $11.48 | $13.76 | $16.95 | $21.73 |
| 6.5% | $6.99 | $8.02 | $9.30 | $10.94 | $13.13 |
| 7.5% | $5.14 | $5.81 | $6.62 | $7.61 | $8.84 |
| 8.5% | $3.82 | $4.29 | $4.84 | $5.49 | $6.27 |
| 9.5% | $2.83 | $3.18 | $3.57 | $4.03 | $4.56 |
