TGM's two-stage DCF values Bentley Systems, Incorporated (BSY) between $22.39 and $42.47 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $30.54. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$32.23 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.5%/yr | 10.0% | $22.39 |
| Base case | 13.5%/yr | 9.0% | $30.54 |
| Optimistic | 16.5%/yr | 8.0% | $42.47 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 5, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $33.91 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$32.23
Market-Implied Growth
+14.7%/yr
vs +13.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$22.39 – $42.47
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BSY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $406.5M · 0.29B shares · net debt $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$30.54
-5.2% vs $32.23
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $32.23; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $38.64 | $42.30 | $46.77 | $52.35 | $59.53 |
| 8.0% | $31.74 | $34.23 | $37.17 | $40.69 | $45.00 |
| 9.0% | $26.69 | $28.48 | $30.54 | $32.94 | $35.77 |
| 10.0% | $22.85 | $24.18 | $25.69 | $27.41 | $29.40 |
| 11.0% | $19.83 | $20.85 | $22.00 | $23.28 | $24.74 |
