TGM's two-stage DCF values Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) between $80.86 and $161.40 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $108.11. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$64.50 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -7.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $80.86 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $108.11 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $161.40 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $246.52 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$64.50
Market-Implied Growth
-7.7%/yr
vs -0.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$80.86 – $161.40
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BMY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $12.7B · 2.04B shares · net debt $34.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$108.11
+67.6% vs $64.50
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $64.50; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $145 | $165 | $191 | $229 | $284 |
| 6.5% | $112 | $124 | $139 | $159 | $184 |
| 7.5% | $90.76 | $98.65 | $108 | $120 | $134 |
| 8.5% | $75.31 | $80.85 | $87.30 | $94.91 | $104 |
| 9.5% | $63.72 | $67.79 | $72.43 | $77.77 | $83.99 |
