TGM's two-stage DCF values Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI) between $111.09 and $210.07 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $149.19. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$127.95 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.6%/yr | 8.5% | $111.09 |
| Base case | 14.6%/yr | 7.5% | $149.19 |
| Optimistic | 17.6%/yr | 6.5% | $210.07 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $217.43 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$127.95
Market-Implied Growth
+10.7%/yr
vs +15.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$111.09 – $210.07
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BMI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $120.2M · 0.03B shares · net cash $226.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$149.19
+16.6% vs $127.95
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $127.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $193 | $217 | $249 | $293 | $360 |
| 6.5% | $154 | $169 | $186 | $209 | $240 |
| 7.5% | $129 | $138 | $149 | $163 | $180 |
| 8.5% | $110 | $117 | $124 | $133 | $144 |
| 9.5% | $96.49 | $101 | $107 | $113 | $120 |
