TGM's two-stage DCF values Blackbaud, Inc. (BLKB) between $57.37 and $106.30 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $77.28. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$43.31 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -4.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.2%/yr | 10.1% | $57.37 |
| Base case | 8.2%/yr | 9.1% | $77.28 |
| Optimistic | 11.2%/yr | 8.1% | $106.30 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $106.50 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$43.31
Market-Implied Growth
-4.0%/yr
vs +11.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$57.37 – $106.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BLKB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $196.6M · 0.05B shares · net debt $355.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$77.28
+78.4% vs $43.31
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $43.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $96.49 | $105 | $116 | $129 | $145 |
| 8.1% | $80.16 | $86.05 | $92.98 | $101 | $111 |
| 9.1% | $68.15 | $72.40 | $77.28 | $82.96 | $89.65 |
| 10.1% | $58.95 | $62.13 | $65.73 | $69.83 | $74.54 |
| 11.1% | $51.69 | $54.14 | $56.88 | $59.95 | $63.42 |
