TGM's two-stage DCF values Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) between $57.18 and $90.76 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $71.32. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$57.47 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.3%/yr | 11.8% | $57.18 |
| Base case | 15.3%/yr | 10.8% | $71.32 |
| Optimistic | 18.3%/yr | 9.8% | $90.76 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $95.62 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$57.47
Market-Implied Growth
+9.3%/yr
vs +15.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$57.18 – $90.76
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BLBD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $103.6M · 0.03B shares · net cash $139.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$71.32
+24.1% vs $57.47
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $57.47; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $83.88 | $88.73 | $94.35 | $101 | $109 |
| 9.8% | $73.56 | $77.16 | $81.24 | $85.91 | $91.32 |
| 10.8% | $65.50 | $68.25 | $71.32 | $74.78 | $78.71 |
| 11.8% | $59.03 | $61.18 | $63.56 | $66.21 | $69.18 |
| 12.8% | $53.72 | $55.45 | $57.34 | $59.41 | $61.71 |
