TGM's two-stage DCF values BlackLine, Inc. (BL) between $44.07 and $94.93 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $63.65. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$28.17 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -2.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.6%/yr | 8.5% | $44.07 |
| Base case | 13.6%/yr | 7.5% | $63.65 |
| Optimistic | 16.6%/yr | 6.5% | $94.93 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $52.26 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$28.17
Market-Implied Growth
-2.1%/yr
vs +23.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$44.07 – $94.93
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $130.3M · 0.06B shares · net debt $530.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$63.65
+125.9% vs $28.17
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $28.17; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $86.14 | $98.33 | $115 | $137 | $171 |
| 6.5% | $66.28 | $73.59 | $82.72 | $94.45 | $110 |
| 7.5% | $53.08 | $57.88 | $63.65 | $70.68 | $79.47 |
| 8.5% | $43.68 | $47.04 | $50.96 | $55.59 | $61.14 |
| 9.5% | $36.65 | $39.11 | $41.92 | $45.16 | $48.94 |
