TGM's two-stage DCF values Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) between $73.55 and $156.46 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $101.60. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$84.32 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -1.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $73.55 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $101.60 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $156.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $272.97 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$84.32
Market-Implied Growth
-1.3%/yr
vs +0.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$73.55 – $156.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BIDU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.2B · 0.34B shares · net debt $9.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$101.60
+20.5% vs $84.32
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $84.32; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $139 | $160 | $187 | $226 | $283 |
| 6.5% | $106 | $118 | $134 | $154 | $180 |
| 7.5% | $83.74 | $91.86 | $102 | $113 | $128 |
| 8.5% | $67.83 | $73.53 | $80.17 | $88.01 | $97.41 |
| 9.5% | $55.91 | $60.09 | $64.87 | $70.37 | $76.77 |
