TGM's two-stage DCF values Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. (BFAM) between $50.25 and $97.59 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $69.83. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$74.33 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +15.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.4%/yr | 10.8% | $50.25 |
| Base case | 14.4%/yr | 9.8% | $69.83 |
| Optimistic | 17.4%/yr | 8.8% | $97.59 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $103.96 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$74.33
Market-Implied Growth
+15.7%/yr
vs +14.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$50.25 – $97.59
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BFAM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $202.6M · 0.05B shares · net debt $916.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$69.83
-6.1% vs $74.33
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $74.33; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $88.24 | $95.96 | $105 | $116 | $130 |
| 8.8% | $72.82 | $78.30 | $84.65 | $92.08 | $101 |
| 9.8% | $61.15 | $65.22 | $69.83 | $75.11 | $81.23 |
| 10.8% | $52.03 | $55.14 | $58.61 | $62.53 | $66.98 |
| 11.8% | $44.71 | $47.15 | $49.84 | $52.84 | $56.19 |
