Why we don't show a single “fair value” for BELFA
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($77.50) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$209.61 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +40.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.7%/yr | 11.9% | $44.08 |
| Base case | 8.7%/yr | 10.9% | $58.17 |
| Optimistic | 11.7%/yr | 9.9% | $77.50 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $44.77 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$209.61
Market-Implied Growth
+40.3%/yr
vs +8.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$58.17
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BELFA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $63.9M · 0.01B shares · net debt $139.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$58.17
-72.2% vs $209.61
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $209.61; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | $70.25 | $74.88 | $80.22 | $86.46 | $93.84 |
| 9.9% | $60.35 | $63.79 | $67.69 | $72.15 | $77.30 |
| 10.9% | $52.57 | $55.22 | $58.17 | $61.49 | $65.25 |
| 11.9% | $46.31 | $48.39 | $50.68 | $53.23 | $56.08 |
| 12.9% | $41.15 | $42.82 | $44.65 | $46.66 | $48.88 |
