TGM's two-stage DCF values Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) between $53.05 and $138.27 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $81.89. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$166.34 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $53.05 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $81.89 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $138.27 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $1,019.48 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$166.34
Market-Implied Growth
+13.7%/yr
vs -5.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$53.05 – $138.27
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BDX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.4B · 0.36B shares · net debt $18.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$81.89
-50.8% vs $166.34
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $166.34; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $121 | $142 | $170 | $209 | $268 |
| 6.5% | $86.41 | $99.09 | $115 | $135 | $162 |
| 7.5% | $63.52 | $71.88 | $81.89 | $94.11 | $109 |
| 8.5% | $47.17 | $53.03 | $59.86 | $67.92 | $77.57 |
| 9.5% | $34.92 | $39.22 | $44.12 | $49.78 | $56.36 |
