Why we don't show a single “fair value” for B
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($17.12) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$43.52 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +44.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.1%/yr | 10.6% | $10.46 |
| Base case | 11.1%/yr | 9.6% | $13.18 |
| Optimistic | 14.2%/yr | 8.6% | $17.12 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $13.34 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$43.52
Market-Implied Growth
+44.8%/yr
vs +12.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$13.18
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for B (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $981.2M · 1.68B shares · net cash $2.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$13.18
-69.7% vs $43.52
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $43.52; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $15.73 | $16.82 | $18.13 | $19.71 | $21.68 |
| 8.6% | $13.59 | $14.35 | $15.25 | $16.30 | $17.55 |
| 9.6% | $11.97 | $12.54 | $13.18 | $13.92 | $14.78 |
| 10.6% | $10.72 | $11.15 | $11.63 | $12.17 | $12.79 |
| 11.6% | $9.71 | $10.05 | $10.42 | $10.83 | $11.30 |
