Why we don't show a single “fair value” for B
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($15.08) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$38.34 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +41.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.8%/yr | 10.6% | $9.32 |
| Base case | 7.8%/yr | 9.6% | $11.69 |
| Optimistic | 10.8%/yr | 8.6% | $15.08 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 4, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $14.99 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$38.34
Market-Implied Growth
+41.1%/yr
vs +7.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$11.69
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for B (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $981.5M · 1.68B shares · net cash $2.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$11.69
-69.5% vs $38.34
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $38.34; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $13.89 | $14.83 | $15.95 | $17.31 | $19.01 |
| 8.6% | $12.04 | $12.70 | $13.47 | $14.38 | $15.46 |
| 9.6% | $10.65 | $11.14 | $11.69 | $12.33 | $13.07 |
| 10.6% | $9.57 | $9.94 | $10.36 | $10.83 | $11.36 |
| 11.6% | $8.71 | $9.00 | $9.32 | $9.67 | $10.07 |
