TGM's two-stage DCF values AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) between $1,749.06 and $3,907.49 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $2,579.64. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$2,854.05 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.0%/yr | 8.5% | $1,749.06 |
| Base case | 7.0%/yr | 7.5% | $2,579.64 |
| Optimistic | 10.0%/yr | 6.5% | $3,907.49 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $4,077.26 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$2,854.05
Market-Implied Growth
+9.0%/yr
vs +7.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$1,749.06 – $3,907.49
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AZO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.0B · 0.02B shares · net debt $8.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$2579.64
-9.6% vs $2854.05
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $2854.05; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $3513 | $4019 | $4693 | $5637 | $7052 |
| 6.5% | $2688 | $2992 | $3372 | $3859 | $4509 |
| 7.5% | $2140 | $2340 | $2580 | $2872 | $3238 |
| 8.5% | $1749 | $1889 | $2052 | $2245 | $2476 |
| 9.5% | $1456 | $1558 | $1676 | $1811 | $1968 |
