Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AXON
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Axon Enterprise, Inc. right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.0% | $25.82 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.0% | $34.66 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.0% | $44.72 |
Current Price
$490.68
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$34.66
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AXON (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $154.1M · 0.08B shares · net debt $609.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$34.66
-92.9% vs $490.68
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $490.68; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $42.53 | $45.52 | $48.97 | $52.98 | $57.73 |
| 10.0% | $36.09 | $38.32 | $40.85 | $43.73 | $47.05 |
| 11.0% | $31.04 | $32.75 | $34.66 | $36.81 | $39.24 |
| 12.0% | $26.96 | $28.31 | $29.80 | $31.45 | $33.30 |
| 13.0% | $23.62 | $24.70 | $25.89 | $27.19 | $28.62 |
