TGM's two-stage DCF values AvePoint, Inc. (AVPT) between $7.47 and $10.73 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $8.97. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$14.88 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +34.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.0% | $7.47 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.0% | $8.97 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.0% | $10.73 |
Current Price
$14.88
Market-Implied Growth
+34.9%/yr
vs +22.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$7.47 – $10.73
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AVPT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $56.4M · 0.21B shares · net cash $473.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$8.97
-39.8% vs $14.88
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $14.88; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $10.37 | $10.95 | $11.64 | $12.46 | $13.46 |
| 9.0% | $9.20 | $9.61 | $10.09 | $10.65 | $11.31 |
| 10.0% | $8.30 | $8.61 | $8.97 | $9.37 | $9.83 |
| 11.0% | $7.60 | $7.84 | $8.11 | $8.40 | $8.74 |
| 12.0% | $7.03 | $7.22 | $7.43 | $7.66 | $7.92 |
