Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AUPH
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.1% | $1.29 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.1% | $1.47 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.1% | $1.66 |
Current Price
$15.52
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$1.47
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AUPH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.0M · 0.13B shares · net cash $80.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$1.47
-90.6% vs $15.52
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $15.52; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | $1.62 | $1.68 | $1.75 | $1.82 | $1.92 |
| 10.1% | $1.49 | $1.54 | $1.59 | $1.64 | $1.71 |
| 11.1% | $1.39 | $1.43 | $1.47 | $1.51 | $1.56 |
| 12.1% | $1.31 | $1.34 | $1.37 | $1.40 | $1.44 |
| 13.1% | $1.25 | $1.27 | $1.29 | $1.32 | $1.35 |
