Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AUGO
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($21.16) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $10.54 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $14.98 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $21.16 |
Current Price
$87.25
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$14.98
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AUGO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $35.3M · 0.08B shares · net debt $125.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$14.98
-82.8% vs $87.25
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $87.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $20.17 | $22.98 | $26.72 | $31.95 | $39.80 |
| 6.5% | $15.59 | $17.28 | $19.38 | $22.08 | $25.68 |
| 7.5% | $12.55 | $13.66 | $14.98 | $16.60 | $18.62 |
| 8.5% | $10.39 | $11.16 | $12.07 | $13.13 | $14.41 |
| 9.5% | $8.78 | $9.34 | $9.99 | $10.73 | $11.60 |
