TGM's two-stage DCF values AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) between $30.57 and $57.71 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $41.11. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$112.32 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +43.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.6%/yr | 8.7% | $30.57 |
| Base case | 16.6%/yr | 7.7% | $41.11 |
| Optimistic | 19.6%/yr | 6.7% | $57.71 |
Current Price
$112.32
Market-Implied Growth
+43.4%/yr
vs +16.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$30.57 – $57.71
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $567.5M · 0.51B shares · net cash $647.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$41.11
-63.4% vs $112.32
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $112.32; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $53.07 | $59.37 | $67.63 | $78.94 | $95.38 |
| 6.7% | $42.57 | $46.43 | $51.20 | $57.25 | $65.20 |
| 7.7% | $35.48 | $38.05 | $41.11 | $44.83 | $49.42 |
| 8.7% | $30.38 | $32.20 | $34.30 | $36.78 | $39.73 |
| 9.7% | $26.54 | $27.88 | $29.40 | $31.15 | $33.18 |
