TGM's two-stage DCF values Atkore Inc. (ATKR) between $139.54 and $226.14 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $176.37. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$94.80 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -9.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.0%/yr | 12.5% | $139.54 |
| Base case | 5.0%/yr | 11.5% | $176.37 |
| Optimistic | 8.0%/yr | 10.5% | $226.14 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $121.29 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$94.80
Market-Implied Growth
-9.6%/yr
vs +6.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$139.54 – $226.14
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ATKR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $494.0M · 0.03B shares · net debt $253.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$176.37
+86.0% vs $94.80
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $94.80; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $206 | $217 | $230 | $244 | $261 |
| 10.5% | $182 | $190 | $200 | $210 | $222 |
| 11.5% | $163 | $169 | $176 | $184 | $193 |
| 12.5% | $147 | $152 | $158 | $164 | $171 |
| 13.5% | $134 | $138 | $142 | $147 | $153 |
