Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ASX
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($1.54) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.5%/yr | 12.3% | $0.03 |
| Base case | 4.5%/yr | 11.3% | $0.67 |
| Optimistic | 7.5%/yr | 10.3% | $1.54 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 1, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $3.44 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$36.95
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$0.67
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ASX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $550.5M · 2.20B shares · net debt $5.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$0.67
-98.2% vs $36.95
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $36.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.3% | $1.19 | $1.39 | $1.61 | $1.87 | $2.17 |
| 10.3% | $0.77 | $0.92 | $1.08 | $1.27 | $1.48 |
| 11.3% | $0.43 | $0.54 | $0.67 | $0.81 | $0.97 |
| 12.3% | $0.15 | $0.24 | $0.34 | $0.45 | $0.58 |
| 13.3% | N/A | N/A | $0.08 | $0.16 | $0.26 |
