TGM's two-stage DCF values Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) between $12.24 and $30.12 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $20.13. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$36.81 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +28.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.7% | $12.24 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.7% | $20.13 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.7% | $30.12 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $55.74 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$36.81
Market-Implied Growth
+28.7%/yr
vs +53.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$12.24 – $30.12
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ASTH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $51.7M · 0.05B shares · net debt $609.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$20.13
-45.3% vs $36.81
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $36.81; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $28.30 | $32.10 | $36.82 | $42.80 | $50.64 |
| 7.7% | $21.30 | $23.83 | $26.86 | $30.52 | $35.05 |
| 8.7% | $16.26 | $18.05 | $20.13 | $22.58 | $25.49 |
| 9.7% | $12.47 | $13.79 | $15.29 | $17.02 | $19.03 |
| 10.7% | $9.51 | $10.52 | $11.65 | $12.93 | $14.38 |
