TGM's two-stage DCF values Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) between $62.40 and $103.24 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $76.77. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$51.98 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.2% | $62.40 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.2% | $76.77 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.2% | $103.24 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $66.39 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$51.98
Market-Implied Growth
-6.9%/yr
vs -10.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$62.40 – $103.24
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ASO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $328.0M · 0.06B shares · net debt $153.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$76.77
+47.7% vs $51.98
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $51.98; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $93.74 | $101 | $110 | $122 | $136 |
| 8.2% | $79.34 | $84.53 | $90.62 | $97.88 | $107 |
| 9.2% | $68.68 | $72.45 | $76.77 | $81.77 | $87.65 |
| 10.2% | $60.48 | $63.31 | $66.51 | $70.14 | $74.31 |
| 11.2% | $53.96 | $56.16 | $58.60 | $61.34 | $64.42 |
