Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ASM
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $0.83 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $0.89 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $0.96 |
Current Price
$7.30
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$0.89
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ASM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.6M · 0.17B shares · net cash $98.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$0.89
-87.8% vs $7.30
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $7.30; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $0.95 | $0.97 | $0.99 | $1.02 | $1.05 |
| 10.5% | $0.90 | $0.92 | $0.94 | $0.96 | $0.98 |
| 11.5% | $0.87 | $0.88 | $0.89 | $0.91 | $0.92 |
| 12.5% | $0.84 | $0.85 | $0.86 | $0.87 | $0.88 |
| 13.5% | $0.81 | $0.82 | $0.83 | $0.84 | $0.85 |
