Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ARM
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($21.57) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $14.89 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $18.04 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $21.57 |
Current Price
$252.09
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$18.04
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ARM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $796.5M · 1.07B shares · net cash $2.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$18.04
-92.8% vs $252.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $252.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $20.78 | $21.78 | $22.93 | $24.25 | $25.78 |
| 10.5% | $18.56 | $19.32 | $20.17 | $21.14 | $22.24 |
| 11.5% | $16.80 | $17.39 | $18.04 | $18.78 | $19.60 |
| 12.5% | $15.36 | $15.83 | $16.35 | $16.92 | $17.55 |
| 13.5% | $14.17 | $14.55 | $14.96 | $15.42 | $15.92 |
