Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ARKR
Even the conservative scenario ($25.75) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.0%/yr | 8.5% | $25.75 |
| Base case | 15.0%/yr | 7.5% | $34.46 |
| Optimistic | 18.0%/yr | 6.5% | $48.37 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $27.19 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$4.51
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$34.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ARKR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.4M · 0.00B shares · net cash $7.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$34.46
+664.0% vs $4.51
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.51; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $44.51 | $49.95 | $57.21 | $67.36 | $82.58 |
| 6.5% | $35.64 | $38.90 | $42.98 | $48.21 | $55.19 |
| 7.5% | $29.74 | $31.89 | $34.46 | $37.60 | $41.52 |
| 8.5% | $25.54 | $27.04 | $28.79 | $30.86 | $33.34 |
| 9.5% | $22.41 | $23.51 | $24.76 | $26.21 | $27.89 |
