A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Arko Corp. (ARKO) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$4.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +17.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.3%/yr | 9.8% | N/A |
| Base case | 7.3%/yr | 8.8% | N/A |
| Optimistic | 10.3%/yr | 7.8% | $2.27 |
Current Price
$4.25
Market-Implied Growth
+17.0%/yr
vs +7.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ARKO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $86.6M · 0.11B shares · net debt $2.1B
Estimated Fair Value
N/A
These assumptions imply no positive equity value — try a higher growth or lower discount rate.
