TGM's two-stage DCF values Arhaus, Inc. (ARHS) between $3.88 and $7.00 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $5.35. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$10.11 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +31.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $3.88 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $5.35 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $7.00 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $8.35 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$10.11
Market-Implied Growth
+31.7%/yr
vs +22.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$3.88 – $7.00
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ARHS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $49.4M · 0.14B shares · net debt $266.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$5.35
-47.1% vs $10.11
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $10.11; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $6.63 | $7.10 | $7.63 | $8.25 | $8.97 |
| 10.5% | $5.59 | $5.95 | $6.35 | $6.80 | $7.32 |
| 11.5% | $4.77 | $5.04 | $5.35 | $5.69 | $6.08 |
| 12.5% | $4.10 | $4.32 | $4.56 | $4.82 | $5.12 |
| 13.5% | $3.54 | $3.72 | $3.91 | $4.12 | $4.36 |
