Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ARCB
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($53.45) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$128.59 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $33.43 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $40.62 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $53.45 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $54.89 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$128.59
Market-Implied Growth
+29.5%/yr
vs -0.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$40.62
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ARCB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $95.5M · 0.02B shares · net debt $158.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$40.62
-68.4% vs $128.59
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $128.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $48.23 | $51.02 | $54.19 | $57.85 | $62.11 |
| 10.5% | $42.07 | $44.18 | $46.56 | $49.24 | $52.31 |
| 11.5% | $37.14 | $38.79 | $40.62 | $42.66 | $44.95 |
| 12.5% | $33.10 | $34.42 | $35.86 | $37.46 | $39.23 |
| 13.5% | $29.74 | $30.81 | $31.97 | $33.25 | $34.65 |
