TGM's two-stage DCF values Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG) between $41.71 and $75.80 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $55.02. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$40.12 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -3.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.6% | $41.71 |
| Base case | 2.9%/yr | 9.6% | $55.02 |
| Optimistic | 5.9%/yr | 8.6% | $75.80 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $61.00 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$40.12
Market-Implied Growth
-3.4%/yr
vs +3.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$41.71 – $75.80
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for APOG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $92.4M · 0.02B shares · net debt $207.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$55.02
+37.1% vs $40.12
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $40.12; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $68.21 | $73.83 | $80.56 | $88.73 | $98.89 |
| 8.6% | $57.11 | $61.08 | $65.69 | $71.12 | $77.60 |
| 9.6% | $48.76 | $51.69 | $55.02 | $58.84 | $63.29 |
| 10.6% | $42.25 | $44.48 | $46.98 | $49.80 | $53.01 |
| 11.6% | $37.03 | $38.77 | $40.71 | $42.86 | $45.27 |
