Why we don't show a single “fair value” for APH
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($24.80) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$80.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +55.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.3% | $14.78 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.3% | $19.40 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.3% | $24.80 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $37.48 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$80.25
Market-Implied Growth
+55.8%/yr
vs +31.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$19.40
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for APH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.2B · 2.47B shares · net debt $4.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$19.40
-75.8% vs $80.25
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $80.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $23.67 | $25.39 | $27.40 | $29.79 | $32.67 |
| 9.3% | $20.13 | $21.38 | $22.81 | $24.46 | $26.39 |
| 10.3% | $17.41 | $18.35 | $19.40 | $20.60 | $21.98 |
| 11.3% | $15.25 | $15.98 | $16.78 | $17.69 | $18.71 |
| 12.3% | $13.50 | $14.08 | $14.71 | $15.41 | $16.19 |
