Why we don't show a single “fair value” for APH
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($49.71) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$152.67 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +54.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.3% | $29.63 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.3% | $38.89 |
| Optimistic |
| 20.0%/yr |
| 9.3% |
| $49.71 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $77.77 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$152.67
Market-Implied Growth
+54.2%/yr
vs +30.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$38.89
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for APH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.2B · 1.23B shares · net debt $4.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$38.89
-74.5% vs $152.67
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $152.67; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $47.45 | $50.89 | $54.92 | $59.71 | $65.48 |
| 9.3% | $40.35 | $42.85 | $45.71 | $49.03 | $52.90 |
| 10.3% | $34.89 | $36.77 | $38.89 | $41.30 | $44.05 |
| 11.3% | $30.57 | $32.02 | $33.64 | $35.46 | $37.50 |
| 12.3% | $27.06 | $28.22 | $29.48 | $30.89 | $32.45 |
