TGM's two-stage DCF values APi Group Corporation (APG) between $14.14 and $24.13 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $18.86. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$40.48 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +36.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $14.14 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $18.86 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $24.13 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 5, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $10.85 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$40.48
Market-Implied Growth
+36.1%/yr
vs +7.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$14.14 – $24.13
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for APG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $482.0M · 0.43B shares · net debt $1.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$18.86
-53.4% vs $40.48
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $40.48; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $22.95 | $24.45 | $26.16 | $28.13 | $30.43 |
| 10.5% | $19.63 | $20.77 | $22.04 | $23.49 | $25.14 |
| 11.5% | $16.99 | $17.88 | $18.86 | $19.95 | $21.18 |
| 12.5% | $14.84 | $15.55 | $16.32 | $17.17 | $18.12 |
| 13.5% | $13.06 | $13.63 | $14.25 | $14.93 | $15.68 |
