TGM's two-stage DCF values APA Corporation (APA) between $68.39 and $144.69 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $97.75. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$37.63 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.7%/yr | 8.5% | $68.39 |
| Base case | 11.7%/yr | 7.5% | $97.75 |
| Optimistic | 14.7%/yr | 6.5% | $144.69 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $99.20 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$37.63
Market-Implied Growth
-6.8%/yr
vs +22.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$68.39 – $144.69
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for APA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.35B shares · net debt $4.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$97.75
+159.8% vs $37.63
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $37.63; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $131 | $149 | $174 | $208 | $258 |
| 6.5% | $102 | $113 | $126 | $144 | $167 |
| 7.5% | $81.98 | $89.15 | $97.75 | $108 | $121 |
| 8.5% | $67.95 | $72.97 | $78.82 | $85.73 | $94.01 |
| 9.5% | $57.46 | $61.14 | $65.34 | $70.18 | $75.81 |
