Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ANET
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($58.96) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$173.99 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +54.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $38.77 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $48.30 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $58.96 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $95.39 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$173.99
Market-Implied Growth
+54.9%/yr
vs +31.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$48.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ANET (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.8B · 1.26B shares · net cash $2.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$48.30
-72.2% vs $173.99
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $173.99; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $56.57 | $59.60 | $63.06 | $67.05 | $71.69 |
| 10.5% | $49.87 | $52.16 | $54.74 | $57.66 | $61.00 |
| 11.5% | $44.53 | $46.32 | $48.30 | $50.52 | $53.00 |
| 12.5% | $40.19 | $41.61 | $43.17 | $44.90 | $46.81 |
| 13.5% | $36.59 | $37.74 | $39.00 | $40.37 | $41.88 |
