Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) DCF Valuation
A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$20.38 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +43.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | N/A |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | N/A |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $3.61 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $117.37 | |
Current Price
$20.38
Market-Implied Growth
+43.6%/yr
Base-Case Model Value
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AMTM DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AMTM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $81.5M · 0.24B shares · net debt $3.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$8.79
-56.8% vs $20.38
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $20.38; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $18.10 | $21.96 | $27.10 | $34.29 | $45.09 |
| 6.5% | $10.66 | $12.86 | $15.62 | $19.16 | $23.88 |
| 7.5% | $5.76 | $7.14 | $8.79 | $10.82 | $13.35 |
| 8.5% | $2.30 | $3.22 | $4.29 | $5.56 | $7.09 |
| 9.5% | — | $0.38 | $1.12 | $1.96 | $2.95 |
About Amentum Holdings, Inc.
Amentum Holdings, Inc. is a provider of critical, technology-driven services, serving both governmental and commercial sectors. Its operations are structured around two distinct segments: Critical Mission Solutions and Cyber & Intelligence. The Critical Mission Solutions (CMS) segment delivers comprehensive support across various domains. This includes testing, training, and operational oversight for advanced missile defense systems. It also furnishes IT and engineering expertise to both defense organizations and the burgeoning space sector. Moreover, CMS offers technological solutions to energy clients, encompassing installation, decommissioning, and vital environmental remediation efforts, in addition to specialized technical consulting services. Meanwhile, the Cyber & Intelligence (C&I) segment focuses on advanced cyber training and sophisticated data analytics for government professionals. It also deploys cutting-edge communication systems and aerial mapping technologies for national security applications, alongside other specialized technical support for U.S. defense and intelligence agencies. Established on November 26, 2019, the company maintains its corporate headquarters in Chantilly, VA.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- CEO
- John E. Heller