Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AMRX
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($9.56) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$20.26 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +28.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.7%/yr | 11.3% | $2.87 |
| Base case | 8.7%/yr | 10.3% | $5.66 |
| Optimistic | 11.7%/yr | 9.3% | $9.56 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $12.83 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$20.26
Market-Implied Growth
+28.4%/yr
vs +8.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$5.66
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AMRX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $245.0M · 0.32B shares · net debt $2.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$5.66
-72.1% vs $20.26
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $20.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $8.14 | $9.14 | $10.31 | $11.69 | $13.36 |
| 9.3% | $6.09 | $6.81 | $7.64 | $8.60 | $9.73 |
| 10.3% | $4.50 | $5.05 | $5.66 | $6.36 | $7.16 |
| 11.3% | $3.24 | $3.66 | $4.14 | $4.66 | $5.26 |
| 12.3% | $2.22 | $2.55 | $2.92 | $3.33 | $3.79 |
