Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AMPL
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($3.83) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $2.68 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $3.23 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $3.83 |
Current Price
$14.88
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$3.23
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AMPL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $17.1M · 0.13B shares · net cash $74.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$3.23
-78.3% vs $14.88
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $14.88; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $3.70 | $3.87 | $4.07 | $4.30 | $4.56 |
| 10.5% | $3.32 | $3.45 | $3.59 | $3.76 | $3.95 |
| 11.5% | $3.01 | $3.11 | $3.23 | $3.35 | $3.49 |
| 12.5% | $2.76 | $2.84 | $2.93 | $3.03 | $3.14 |
| 13.5% | $2.56 | $2.62 | $2.70 | $2.77 | $2.86 |
