TGM's two-stage DCF values Amgen Inc. (AMGN) between $215.07 and $499.96 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $324.70. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$376.04 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.2%/yr | 8.5% | $215.07 |
| Base case | 8.2%/yr | 7.5% | $324.70 |
| Optimistic | 11.2%/yr | 6.5% | $499.96 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $1,000.65 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$376.04
Market-Implied Growth
+11.0%/yr
vs -2.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$215.07 – $499.96
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AMGN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $8.4B · 0.54B shares · net debt $45.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$324.70
-13.7% vs $376.04
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $376.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $448 | $515 | $605 | $730 | $918 |
| 6.5% | $339 | $379 | $430 | $494 | $580 |
| 7.5% | $266 | $293 | $325 | $363 | $412 |
| 8.5% | $215 | $233 | $255 | $280 | $311 |
| 9.5% | $176 | $189 | $205 | $223 | $244 |
