TGM's two-stage DCF values AMETEK, Inc. (AME) between $105.19 and $190.28 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $139.81. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$237.72 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.5%/yr | 10.1% | $105.19 |
| Base case | 9.5%/yr | 9.1% | $139.81 |
| Optimistic | 12.5%/yr | 8.1% | $190.28 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $166.53 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$237.72
Market-Implied Growth
+22.3%/yr
vs +9.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$105.19 – $190.28
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AME (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.23B shares · net debt $1.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$139.81
-41.2% vs $237.72
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $237.72; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $173 | $188 | $207 | $229 | $258 |
| 8.1% | $145 | $155 | $167 | $182 | $199 |
| 9.1% | $124 | $131 | $140 | $150 | $161 |
| 10.1% | $108 | $113 | $120 | $127 | $135 |
| 11.1% | $95.09 | $99.38 | $104 | $110 | $116 |