Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AMCX
Even the conservative scenario ($30.70) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$11.14 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -10.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.8% | $30.70 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.8% | $43.75 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.8% | $67.19 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $215.97 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$11.14
Market-Implied Growth
-10.3%/yr
vs -14.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$43.75
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AMCX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $220.5M · 0.03B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$43.75
+292.7% vs $11.14
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $11.14; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $57.96 | $63.44 | $69.77 | $77.19 | $85.99 |
| 9.8% | $46.30 | $50.37 | $54.98 | $60.26 | $66.37 |
| 10.8% | $37.15 | $40.27 | $43.75 | $47.67 | $52.13 |
| 11.8% | $29.78 | $32.23 | $34.93 | $37.94 | $41.31 |
| 12.8% | $23.71 | $25.67 | $27.83 | $30.19 | $32.81 |
