Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AMBA
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($17.89) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.9%/yr | 12.5% | $12.82 |
| Base case | 13.9%/yr | 11.5% | $14.98 |
| Optimistic | 16.9%/yr | 10.5% | $17.89 |
Current Price
$82.89
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$14.98
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AMBA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $26.2M · 0.04B shares · net cash $191.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$14.98
-81.9% vs $82.89
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $82.89; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $16.81 | $17.48 | $18.25 | $19.14 | $20.17 |
| 10.5% | $15.32 | $15.83 | $16.41 | $17.05 | $17.80 |
| 11.5% | $14.14 | $14.53 | $14.98 | $15.47 | $16.02 |
| 12.5% | $13.17 | $13.49 | $13.84 | $14.22 | $14.64 |
| 13.5% | $12.37 | $12.63 | $12.91 | $13.21 | $13.55 |
