Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AMAT
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($145.55) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$471.89 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +46.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.2%/yr | 12.5% | $91.77 |
| Base case | 7.2%/yr | 11.5% | $114.64 |
| Optimistic | 10.2%/yr | 10.5% | $145.55 |
Current Price
$471.89
Market-Implied Growth
+46.0%/yr
vs +5.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$114.64
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AMAT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $6.6B · 0.79B shares · net cash $686.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$114.64
-75.7% vs $471.89
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $471.89; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $133 | $140 | $148 | $157 | $168 |
| 10.5% | $118 | $123 | $129 | $136 | $144 |
| 11.5% | $106 | $110 | $115 | $120 | $125 |
| 12.5% | $96.06 | $99.32 | $103 | $107 | $111 |
| 13.5% | $87.78 | $90.42 | $93.30 | $96.45 | $99.90 |
