TGM's two-stage DCF values Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) between $17.51 and $40.27 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $26.27. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$22.88 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.0%/yr | 8.5% | $17.51 |
| Base case | 8.0%/yr | 7.5% | $26.27 |
| Optimistic | 11.0%/yr | 6.5% | $40.27 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $26.58 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$22.88
Market-Implied Growth
+5.4%/yr
vs +9.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$17.51 – $40.27
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $598.4M · 0.47B shares · net debt $3.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$26.27
+14.8% vs $22.88
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $22.88; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $36.14 | $41.50 | $48.64 | $58.63 | $73.60 |
| 6.5% | $27.42 | $30.64 | $34.65 | $39.81 | $46.68 |
| 7.5% | $21.62 | $23.73 | $26.27 | $29.37 | $33.23 |
| 8.5% | $17.48 | $18.96 | $20.69 | $22.73 | $25.17 |
| 9.5% | $14.38 | $15.47 | $16.71 | $18.14 | $19.80 |
