TGM's two-stage DCF values Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) between $45.83 and $87.76 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $62.31. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$56.24 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +6.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.1%/yr | 9.0% | $45.83 |
| Base case | 9.1%/yr | 8.0% | $62.31 |
| Optimistic | 12.1%/yr | 7.0% | $87.76 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $150.68 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$56.24
Market-Implied Growth
+6.7%/yr
vs +9.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$45.83 – $87.76
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ALRM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $129.4M · 0.05B shares · net debt $103.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$62.31
+10.8% vs $56.24
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $56.24; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $79.95 | $88.89 | $100 | $116 | $137 |
| 7.0% | $64.57 | $70.21 | $77.10 | $85.71 | $96.76 |
| 8.0% | $53.94 | $57.78 | $62.31 | $67.75 | $74.39 |
| 9.0% | $46.16 | $48.92 | $52.09 | $55.80 | $60.17 |
| 10.0% | $40.22 | $42.28 | $44.61 | $47.27 | $50.33 |
