Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ALNT
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($24.06) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$116.04 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +49.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.8%/yr | 12.5% | $12.25 |
| Base case | 5.8%/yr | 11.5% | $17.27 |
| Optimistic | 8.8%/yr | 10.5% | $24.06 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $30.15 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$116.04
Market-Implied Growth
+49.7%/yr
vs +3.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$17.27
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ALNT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $32.8M · 0.02B shares · net debt $131.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$17.27
-85.1% vs $116.04
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $116.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $21.38 | $22.88 | $24.60 | $26.58 | $28.88 |
| 10.5% | $18.05 | $19.19 | $20.48 | $21.93 | $23.58 |
| 11.5% | $15.39 | $16.28 | $17.27 | $18.37 | $19.61 |
| 12.5% | $13.22 | $13.93 | $14.71 | $15.57 | $16.52 |
| 13.5% | $11.41 | $11.99 | $12.62 | $13.30 | $14.06 |
