TGM's two-stage DCF values Allegion plc (ALLE) between $75.32 and $154.36 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $106.84. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$165.56 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.6%/yr | 9.4% | $75.32 |
| Base case | 5.6%/yr | 8.4% | $106.84 |
| Optimistic | 8.6%/yr | 7.4% | $154.36 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $225.57 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$165.56
Market-Implied Growth
+14.8%/yr
vs +3.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$75.32 – $154.36
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ALLE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $549.6M · 0.09B shares · net debt $1.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$106.84
-35.5% vs $165.56
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $165.56; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $139 | $154 | $174 | $199 | $232 |
| 7.4% | $111 | $121 | $133 | $148 | $167 |
| 8.4% | $91.60 | $98.63 | $107 | $117 | $128 |
| 9.4% | $76.99 | $82.12 | $88.00 | $94.78 | $103 |
| 10.4% | $65.67 | $69.56 | $73.94 | $78.89 | $84.56 |
