TGM's two-stage DCF values Alkermes plc (ALKS) between $50.83 and $92.92 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $67.03. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$41.54 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -4.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.7%/yr | 8.5% | $50.83 |
| Base case | 8.7%/yr | 7.5% | $67.03 |
| Optimistic | 11.7%/yr | 6.5% | $92.92 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $35.25 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$41.54
Market-Implied Growth
-4.0%/yr
vs +20.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$50.83 – $92.92
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ALKS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $379.5M · 0.17B shares · net cash $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$67.03
+61.4% vs $41.54
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $41.54; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $85.33 | $95.26 | $108 | $127 | $155 |
| 6.5% | $69.17 | $75.12 | $82.57 | $92.13 | $105 |
| 7.5% | $58.41 | $62.33 | $67.03 | $72.77 | $79.93 |
| 8.5% | $50.74 | $53.48 | $56.68 | $60.46 | $64.99 |
| 9.5% | $44.99 | $47.01 | $49.31 | $51.95 | $55.04 |
